Can You Retire at 62 With $1 Million? The Real Odds

3.9%. Morningstar's 2025 research puts the safe starting withdrawal rate at that figure: the share of your savings you can take in year one, then raise with inflation, and still have money left in 90% of simulated futures over 30 years. On $1 million, that's about $39,000 in year one. So can you retire at 62 with $1 million? Often, yes. It depends on three things: what you spend, when you claim Social Security, and how you pay for health care before Medicare starts at 65.

That's the short answer. The rest of this article covers the conditions behind it, which most "$1M lasts X years" articles skip.

(Source: Morningstar, The State of Retirement Income 2025, Dec 2025.)

Can you retire at 62 with $1 million? Start with spending

Most articles give you one number, like "$1 million lasts 25 years." That number assumes markets deliver an average return every year. They don't. Some decades are kind. Some aren't. And the order your returns arrive in matters as much as their average.

A better question: in how many possible futures does your money last?

That's what Morningstar's 3.9% measures. It isn't the rate that works when markets behave normally. It's the rate that held up in 90% of simulated outcomes. That's a much tougher test.

Here's what the common rates give you on $1 million in year one:

There's a catch at 62. Morningstar's figure assumes a 30-year retirement. Retire at 62 and plan to 95, and you need 33 years. Longer retirements generally call for a lower starting rate, or for spending that can flex. A few extra years can make a real difference to your odds.

So the first check is simple. Is your portfolio spending, meaning what you spend minus any other income, near $39,000 a year or well above it? That number decides more than anything else in this article.

The five years before Social Security

At 62 you can claim Social Security. You can also wait. That choice changes your paycheck for life.

If you were born in 1960 or later, your full retirement age is 67. Claim at 62 and your benefit drops by about 30%, permanently. The cut is 5/9 of 1% for each of the first 36 months you claim early, plus 5/12 of 1% for each month beyond that. Sixty months early works out to 30%.

(Sources: Motley Fool, "How Much Will Claiming Social Security at 62 Cost?", Feb 2026; Nasdaq, "Claiming Social Security at 62 vs. 67: What You Give Up". Confirm your own numbers with the SSA.)

The bridge strategy

Plenty of people retiring at 62 don't claim right away. They bridge: they draw more from the portfolio from 62 to 67, or to 70, and then let a larger Social Security check take over a big share of their spending for the rest of their life.

The trade-off is real. Bridging means heavier withdrawals in exactly the years when a market drop does the most damage. In return, you get a bigger, inflation-adjusted income later, which lowers the strain on your portfolio for decades.

Which one wins? Neither, in general. It depends on your benefit amount, your spending, your health, and if you're married, on survivor benefits, since the higher earner's check can carry on for the surviving spouse. This is a good question to model rather than guess. Compare "claim at 62," "bridge to 67," and "bridge to 70" side by side and look at the success rate each one gives.

Health care from 62 to 65

Medicare doesn't start until 65. Retire at 62 and you need about three years of other coverage. For most people that means an ACA marketplace plan.

In 2026 that got harder. The enhanced ACA premium tax credits expired on December 31, 2025. Those credits had capped benchmark premiums at 8.5% of income with no upper income limit. Now the subsidy cliff is back: if your income is above 400% of the Federal Poverty Level, you get no subsidy at all. ACA rules also let insurers charge older adults up to three times what a 21-year-old pays.

(Sources: Financial Planning, "ACA subsidy cliffs are back and costing clients thousands"; KFF, "If Enhanced ACA Tax Credits Expire, Older Marketplace Enrollees Face Steepest Premium Hikes".)

Here's the part most "$1M at 62" pages miss. The accounts you withdraw from change your income on paper. Traditional 401(k) withdrawals, capital gains, and Roth conversions all count toward the income figure used for the subsidy test. That's true even when the gain is taxed at 0% federally. Pull $1 million's worth of spending out of the wrong account in the wrong year and you could lose your subsidy.

(Sources: Q3 Advisors, "Roth Conversion ACA Subsidy Cliff 2026"; Retirement Researcher, "Planning Around the ACA Subsidy Cliff".)

Then comes Medicare

Medicare isn't free either. Fidelity estimates that a 65-year-old retiring in 2025 will spend $172,500 on Medicare premiums, deductibles, and prescriptions over retirement. That figure leaves out long-term care entirely.

(Source: Fidelity Investments, 2025 Retiree Health Care Cost Estimate, Jul 2025.)

Medicare also has income-based surcharges, called IRMAA, that use your tax return from two years earlier. So big Roth conversions at 63 or 64 can raise your Medicare premiums at 65 or 66. Health care is a line item, not a rounding error. Model it year by year.

Sequence risk: why the first five years matter most

Two retirees can earn the same average return over 30 years and get very different results. The difference is sequence-of-returns risk: when the bad years arrive.

Suppose the market falls hard in your first few years of retirement while you're also drawing extra to bridge to Social Security. You end up selling more shares at low prices. Those shares aren't there for the recovery. A crash in year 20 hurts much less, because by then a smaller share of your plan depends on the portfolio.

At 62 this risk is stronger than usual, because the bridge years and the early years of retirement are the same years. It's also the risk an average-return projection can't show you. A Monte Carlo simulation can.

Monte Carlo, in plain terms: instead of assuming one steady return, you run your plan through many possible market histories, some good, some bad, in different orders, and count how many of them leave you with money left. The result is a percentage, not a promise.

Plan for a long life, not an average one

According to Social Security's own planning guidance, about one in three 65-year-olds may live to at least 90. A plan that stops at 85 quietly bets against a third of retirees.

(Source: Social Security Administration, Retirement Information for Medicare Beneficiaries, 2026.)

If you retire at 62, a long life could mean more than 30 years of withdrawals. That's why the length of your plan matters as much as the size of your balance.

Not all $1 million is the same

Three people can each have $1 million and face very different situations:

• All in a pre-tax 401(k): every dollar you withdraw is taxable income. That raises your tax bill and counts against the ACA subsidy test.
• A mix of pre-tax, Roth, and taxable accounts: more control. You can choose which account to draw from each year to manage your taxes, your ACA eligibility, and later your IRMAA exposure.
• A paid-off home on top: lower monthly spending, so the same $1 million covers a bigger share of your costs.

The years between 62 and 70 are often your lowest-income years. That makes them a window to think about Roth conversions in low tax brackets, balanced against the ACA cliff and the two-year IRMAA look-back. These things interact. Treat them as one decision.

Flexible spending improves your odds

Most static articles assume you take the same inflation-adjusted amount every year, no matter what. Real retirees don't do that. They cut back after a bad year, delay a big trip, or skip a car upgrade.

Spending rules that adjust after bad years, often called "guardrails," can make a plan noticeably more resilient. You give up some certainty about this year's budget in exchange for better odds that the money lasts. It's worth testing both ways to see the difference in your own numbers.

What this means for you

Retiring at 62 with $1 million isn't a yes-or-no question. It's a question of odds, and those odds depend on:

1. How much you spend compared with roughly $39,000 to $40,000 a year from the portfolio
2. When you claim Social Security, and whether you bridge
3. How you cover health care from 62 to 65, and how your withdrawals affect ACA subsidies
4. How long you plan for, ideally into your 90s
5. Which accounts your money is in
6. Whether your spending can flex after bad years

Here's one more number. EBRI's 2025 Retirement Confidence Survey found that only 52% of workers have estimated how much monthly income they'll need in retirement. The other 48% are guessing. Knowing your monthly spending already puts you ahead.

(Source: EBRI/Greenwald Retirement Confidence Survey 2025, Fact Sheet 3.)

Get your own answer

That's where Monte Climb's retirement calculator comes in. Three numbers: your age, what you've saved, and what you spend each month. We run them through 1,000 simulated futures and show what share of them stay funded. It runs in your browser, and nothing is saved until you say so.

Plans run to age 95 by default, and you can extend them. The engine charges Medicare premiums and income-based surcharges year by year instead of using a flat guess. If you want to dig deeper, ask William, our AI planner, "Can I retire at 62?" or "What's a sustainable spend?" and he'll show his work.

It's planning software, not advice. And the answer is a probability, not a promise. But it's your probability, based on your numbers.

Show my answer →

Frequently asked questions

Can I retire at 62 with $1 million?

Often, yes, if your spending is moderate. Morningstar's 2025 research puts the safe starting withdrawal rate at 3.9%, or about $39,000 a year from $1 million, based on money lasting in 90% of simulated futures over 30 years. Retiring at 62 can mean a longer horizon than that, so your Social Security timing, health care costs, and spending flexibility all affect your odds.

How much can I withdraw each year from $1 million at 62?

A 3.9% starting rate gives about $39,000 in year one, and the classic 4% rule gives $40,000. Both assume a roughly 30-year retirement. If you plan from 62 to 95, a lower starting rate or spending that adjusts after bad years can improve your odds.

How much does claiming Social Security at 62 reduce my benefit?

If your full retirement age is 67 (born 1960 or later), claiming at 62 cuts your benefit by about 30%, permanently. A $2,000 benefit at 67 becomes about $1,400 at 62. The cut shrinks for each year you wait, down to zero at 67.

How do I pay for health insurance between 62 and 65?

Most early retirees use an ACA marketplace plan until Medicare starts at 65. For 2026, the enhanced subsidies have expired, so income above 400% of the Federal Poverty Level gets no subsidy. 401(k) withdrawals, capital gains, and Roth conversions all count toward that income test, so which accounts you draw from matters.

How long should a retirement plan starting at 62 run?

Plan for a long life. Social Security's planning guidance says about one in three 65-year-olds may live to at least 90. Running your plan into your mid-90s helps protect against outliving your savings.