Can You Retire at 62 With $2 Million? How to Read the Odds

3.9%. Morningstar's research found that a starting withdrawal at that rate still leaves money in the account in 90% of simulated futures over a 30-year retirement. On $2 million, that works out to about $78,000 in the first year. So can you retire at 62 with $2 million? For many people the odds can be good. That depends on three things: your spending fits the portfolio, you have a plan for the years before full Social Security, and you've priced health insurance for the years before Medicare. The rest of this piece covers where that answer gets fragile and how to test it with your own numbers.

The short answer: can you retire at 62 with $2 million?

It depends on spending more than on the $2 million itself. The same portfolio can be comfortable at one budget and risky at another.

Here's the basic arithmetic for first-year withdrawals from $2 million:

Source for 3.9%: Morningstar, The State of Retirement Income 2025, December 2025.

Two things are missing from that table.

First, Morningstar's figure assumes a 30-year retirement. Retire at 62 and plan to 95, and you're funding 33 years. A longer horizon puts more pressure on any withdrawal rate.

Second, these figures are what you take from the portfolio. Other income comes on top, and Social Security is usually the big one. Taxes and health insurance come out of it. Spending $100,000 a year doesn't mean withdrawing $100,000 a year if a Social Security check covers part of it. But in the years before that check starts, the portfolio may pay for nearly everything.

Why one average return can't answer this

Most articles on this question run a single straight line: assume a fixed return, subtract spending, see what's left. It's tidy. It's also not how markets behave.

A Monte Carlo simulation works differently. You don't assume one future. You run your plan through many possible futures: good decades, bad decades, crashes early or late. Then you count how many of them keep you funded. If 870 out of 1,000 futures still have money at 95, your success rate is 87%.

That's a probability, not a promise. It's still more honest than a single number.

The timing of bad years matters a lot at 62. Planners call this sequence-of-returns risk. A market drop in your first few years of retirement hurts more than the same drop 15 years in, because you're selling investments to pay bills while prices are down. Retiring at 62 makes this worse, because those early years are also the years your portfolio carries the most weight. That's the next section.

The bridge years: 62 to 67

If you stop working at 62, you have a choice. You can claim Social Security early or let your portfolio cover the gap.

Claiming early comes with a permanent cut. For anyone born in 1960 or later, full retirement age is 67, and the benefit at each claiming age looks like this (Schwab, citing SSA):

That reduction lasts for life (CPA Practice Advisor). It doesn't go back up at 67.

Waiting has a cost too. In one case study, 24/7 Wall St estimated that a $2 million retiree who stops at 62 spends about $380,000 of the portfolio before Social Security starts at 67 (247 Wall St). Treat that as one example, not a rule. Your number depends on your spending, any pension, and whether a spouse is still working.

What matters is how the two choices interact. Bigger withdrawals early mean more exposure to a bad first few years. A larger, delayed check later means smaller withdrawals for the rest of your life. Which one wins depends on how the markets go, and that's what a simulation can show you. Run the same plan with claiming at 62, 67 and 70, then compare the success rates.

Health care before 65: the line item people underestimate

Medicare starts at 65. Retire at 62 and you need three years of coverage from somewhere else, usually COBRA or an ACA marketplace plan.

For 2026, that's become harder to plan for. The enhanced ACA subsidies expired on December 31, 2025, which brought back the subsidy cliff: households with income above 400% of the federal poverty level get no premium tax credit at all (CNBC, Jan. 6, 2026; healthinsurance.org).

For 2026 coverage in the 48 contiguous states and DC, the cliff sits at about:

• $62,600 of modified adjusted gross income for a single person
• $84,600 for a couple

Source: q3adv. These rules can change, so check the current thresholds for the year you plan to retire.

That's why estimates of the pre-Medicare gap vary so much. One analysis put it at about $47,000 for a $1.8 million retiree (247 Wall St). Another put it near $96,000 for a couple with $1.6 million (Yahoo Finance). The gap between those two estimates says a lot. Your cost depends heavily on how much taxable income you report in those years.

The cost doesn't end at 65. Fidelity estimates a 65-year-old retiring in 2025 will spend $172,500 on Medicare premiums, deductibles and prescriptions over retirement, and that figure excludes long-term care (Fidelity Investments, 2025 Retiree Health Care Cost Estimate, July 2025). Higher-income retirees also pay income-based Medicare surcharges, known as IRMAA. So the income you report later matters too.

Plan for 33 years, not 20

According to the Social Security Administration, about one in three 65-year-olds may live to at least 90 (SSA, Retirement Information for Medicare Beneficiaries, 2026). For couples, the planning window gets longer still. One analysis of a 60-year-old couple with $2 million suggested planning for roughly 35 years of income (AOL/Moneywise).

A plan that stops at 85 quietly assumes you won't be one of them. That's why the plan you build with us runs to 95 by default, and you can extend it.

What the usual "$2 million at 62" articles skip

Most of the articles that rank for this question treat $2 million as one pile of money with one fixed return. Real plans have more moving parts:

• Account mix. $2 million all in a pre-tax 401(k) isn't the same as $2 million split across taxable, Roth and pre-tax accounts. Every 401(k) withdrawal counts as taxable income, which affects your taxes and your ACA subsidy.
• Roth conversions vs. ACA subsidies. The years from 62 to 64 are often a good time to convert pre-tax money to Roth while your income is low. But each conversion raises your income, and that can push you over the subsidy cliff. You're trading savings now against savings later, and it's worth modeling rather than guessing.
• Flexible spending. If you're willing to cut spending for a while after a bad market year, your odds can improve noticeably. A plan that can't bend is more fragile than one that can.
• Single vs. couple. The ACA thresholds, survivor benefits and spending needs all differ. A $2 million plan for one person is a different problem from a $2 million plan for two.

None of these show up in a straight-line projection. All of them can change your success rate.

How to test your own $2 million plan

You don't need a spreadsheet to start. You need three numbers.

1. Your age. For this question, 62.
2. What you've saved for retirement. Here, $2 million.
3. What you spend each month. Be honest, and include health insurance.

Monte Climb runs those three numbers through 1,000 simulated futures and returns the share that stay funded. It runs in your browser, and nothing is saved until you say so.

Then stress-test it. Try a higher monthly spend. Try a weak first few years. Compare claiming Social Security at 62 with waiting until 67. Each change shows you how sensitive your plan is.

If you want to talk it through, our AI planner William can take questions like "Am I on track?", "Can I retire at 62?" or "What's a sustainable spend?" He shows his work, so you can see why the answer is what it is.

One caveat. This is planning software, not advice. It shows you the odds. The decisions are still yours.

The bottom line

$2 million at 62 is a strong starting point. Whether it's enough depends on your spending, your bridge to Social Security, your health care costs before Medicare, and how long the money has to last. Look at it as a probability rather than a yes or no.

Want to see your odds? Enter your three numbers and hit Show my answer. If you want to keep going after that, the full app runs on the same engine, and you can try Monte Climb for 7 days for $1 ($120 a year after that).

Frequently asked questions

Is $2 million enough to retire at 62?

For many people it can be, but it depends on spending more than on the balance. Morningstar's 2025 research puts the safe starting withdrawal rate at 3.9%, about $78,000 a year from $2 million, based on money lasting in 90% of simulated outcomes over 30 years. Retiring at 62 and planning to 95 means a longer horizon, so test your own numbers.

How much can I withdraw each year from $2 million?

The classic 4% rule gives about $80,000 a year, and Morningstar's 3.9% rate gives about $78,000. Social Security and any pension come on top of that. Taxes and health insurance come out of it.

Should I claim Social Security at 62 if I retire at 62?

Claiming at 62 pays 70% of your full benefit if your full retirement age is 67, and the cut is permanent. Waiting means your portfolio covers more of the early years. In one 24/7 Wall St case study, that came to about $380,000 before Social Security started at 67. Comparing claiming ages on the same simulated plan shows the tradeoff for your situation.

How do I get health insurance from 62 until Medicare at 65?

The usual options are COBRA or an ACA marketplace plan. For 2026, the subsidy cliff is back: income above about $62,600 for a single person or $84,600 for a couple (400% of the federal poverty level, 48 contiguous states and DC) means no premium tax credit. Check the current rules for the year you retire.

What is a Monte Carlo retirement simulation?

It runs your plan through many possible market futures instead of one average return, then counts how many keep you funded. If 870 of 1,000 futures still have money at 95, your success rate is 87%. That's a probability, not a guarantee.