How to Know If Your Retirement Savings Are on Track

48%. That's the share of workers who have never estimated how much income they'll need each month in retirement. Only 52% have done that math, according to the EBRI/Greenwald Retirement Confidence Survey 2025 (Fact Sheet 3). If you're in the other half, you may not be behind on savings at all. You just don't have a target yet, and you can't tell whether your retirement savings are on track until you have one.

The good news is that you can get a real answer with a few numbers. Here is the short version, then the detail.

The short answer

Your savings are probably in good shape if three things line up:

• Your balance is close to the benchmark for your age and income. This is a rough check.
• Your planned withdrawals are a modest share of your savings. Morningstar's 2025 research puts the safe starting withdrawal rate at 3.9% for a 30-year retirement.
• Most simulated futures leave you with money at the end. Many professionals aim for a success rate of roughly 80% to 95%.

The first check is a yardstick. The third is the one that actually answers the question. Here's each one in turn.

Three ways to check if your retirement savings are on track

1. Compare your balance to a salary multiple

This is the most common benchmark. Fidelity publishes retirement savings guidelines by age expressed as multiples of your current salary:

To use it, add up every account you've set aside for retirement: 401(k)s, IRAs, and any brokerage money earmarked for later. Divide the total by your current salary, then compare.

Read the fine print, though. Fidelity calls these targets aspirational. They assume your savings need to replace about 45% of your pre-retirement income after Social Security, and that you have no pension. In Fidelity's own milestone explainer, someone who plans to travel a lot needs closer to 12x by 67. A multiple is really a stand-in for spending. If your spending is unusual in either direction, the multiple won't fit you well.

2. Check your withdrawal rate

This one is simple arithmetic and much more personal.

Annual withdrawal from savings ÷ total savings = withdrawal rate

Take what you expect to spend each year in retirement and subtract reliable income such as Social Security or a pension. What's left has to come from your portfolio. Divide that by your savings.

An illustration with made-up numbers: you have $800,000 saved and need $3,000 a month from it. That's $36,000 a year, or a 4.5% withdrawal rate.

Now compare that with the research. Morningstar's The State of Retirement Income 2025 (December 2025) puts the safe starting withdrawal rate at 3.9%. That's the rate at which money is still there in 90% of simulated outcomes over a 30-year retirement. At 3.9%, that same $800,000 supports about $31,200 a year, or $2,600 a month. The example plan is a stretch, though not hopeless.

3. Get a probability of success

This is the check that most "am I on track" articles skip.

A Monte Carlo simulation sounds technical, but the idea is plain. Instead of assuming markets return a steady average every year, it runs your plan through hundreds or thousands of possible futures. Some have strong early markets, some have crashes in year two, and most fall somewhere in between. Then it counts how many of those futures keep you funded to the end.

The result is a success rate. If 850 of 1,000 futures keep you funded, your success rate is 85%.

What's a good number? Empower notes that most professionals aim for roughly 80% to 95%. Foolwealth describes a "Confidence Zone" of 75% to 90%. If you're well below that range, your plan needs work. If you're near 100%, you may be underspending: working longer or living more frugally than you need to.

This is the check Monte Climb was built for. Enter your age, what you've saved, and what you spend each month, and the engine runs those three numbers through 1,000 simulated futures and returns one success rate.

Why the benchmarks don't agree

If you've looked around, you've seen conflicting targets. Fidelity says 6x salary at 50. T. Rowe Price has said that most 50-year-olds are on track at about 5x. Other guides use a replacement ratio instead. Financial Finesse, for example, suggests you're likely on track if Social Security plus savings replaces 70% to 80% of your pre-retirement gross income.

Neither firm is wrong. Each builds its rule on different assumptions about when you retire, how much income you need to replace, and how markets behave. Change the assumptions and the target moves.

The bigger point is that every benchmark measures your savings against your income. Whether your plan works depends on your savings measured against your spending. Two 50-year-olds can both have exactly 6x their salary:

• One has a pension and modest plans. Their odds may be excellent.
• The other has no pension and big travel plans. Their odds may be poor.

They have the same multiple and very different futures. That's why the benchmark is where you start, not where you stop.

What a success rate tells you, and what it doesn't

A success rate is more honest than a single projection, but you still need to read it carefully.

It counts survival, not comfort. A future "succeeds" if the money doesn't run out. A run that ends with $1 at age 95 counts the same as one that ends with $1 million.

It doesn't tell you how the failures fail. At 85%, the other 15% matter. Running short at 93 is a very different problem from running short at 78.

It's a snapshot. Your odds change with markets, spending, and health. A success rate is something you check every year, not a verdict you get once.

That's why we frame the answer as a probability, not a promise. It's the best evidence you have today about a future no one can see.

Three risks that quietly change the answer

Simple calculators often understate these risks.

Longevity

According to the Social Security Administration's Retirement Information for Medicare Beneficiaries (2026), about one in three 65-year-olds may live to at least 90. A plan that stops at 85 quietly bets against a third of retirees. That's why plans built in Monte Climb run to age 95 by default, and you can extend them further.

Health care

Fidelity's 2025 Retiree Health Care Cost Estimate (July 2025) puts lifetime health care costs for a 65-year-old retiring this year at $172,500. That covers Medicare premiums, deductibles, and prescriptions. It doesn't include long-term care. Treat it as its own line item, because it's far too big to round off.

The length of your retirement

Morningstar's 3.9% figure assumes a 30-year retirement. If you retire at 62 and plan to 95, that's 33 years. A longer horizon generally calls for a more cautious withdrawal rate, which is one more reason to test your own numbers instead of borrowing a rule.

If you're behind, here's what you control

Being behind a benchmark isn't a crisis. It tells you which settings to adjust. You have four main ones:

1. Retire later. Every extra working year adds a year of saving and removes a year of withdrawals.
2. Spend less in retirement. Because spending drives your withdrawal rate, even modest cuts can matter.
3. Save more now. T. Rowe Price suggests raising your savings rate gradually if a big jump isn't realistic.
4. Revisit your assumptions. Plan for a realistic lifespan and realistic health costs, not a hopeful version of either.

Which of these helps most depends on your situation. Instead of guessing, change one number at a time and see how your success rate moves. It's like breaking your plan on purpose before life does it for you.

A 15-minute retirement checkup

1. Add up every retirement account. Use one total, with nothing left out.
2. Estimate your monthly spending in retirement. This is the step 48% of workers have never taken.
3. Calculate your salary multiple. Compare it with Fidelity's table and remember its assumptions.
4. Calculate your withdrawal rate. Compare it with Morningstar's 3.9%.
5. Get your success rate. Run your numbers through simulated futures to at least age 95.
6. Stress-test it. Try retiring two years earlier, spending more, or adding health care costs. Watch what changes.
7. Repeat once a year.

Find out where you stand

Three numbers: your age, what you've saved, and what you spend each month. We run them through 1,000 simulated futures, to age 95 by default, and give you a success rate. Then you can ask William, our AI planner, follow-up questions like "Am I on track?" or "Can I retire at 62?" He shows his work.

It runs in your browser, and nothing is saved until you say so. It's planning software, not advice.

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Frequently asked questions

What is a good Monte Carlo success rate for retirement?

Empower notes that most professionals aim for roughly 80% to 95%. Foolwealth describes a 'Confidence Zone' of 75% to 90%. A rate well below that range means your plan needs changes. A rate near 100% may mean you're working longer or spending less than you need to.

How much should I have saved for retirement by 60?

Fidelity's guideline is 8x your salary by 60 and 10x by 67. Fidelity calls these targets aspirational. They assume your savings replace about 45% of your pre-retirement income after Social Security and that you have no pension, so your own target may be higher or lower.

What is a safe withdrawal rate in retirement?

Morningstar's The State of Retirement Income 2025 (December 2025) puts the safe starting withdrawal rate at 3.9%. That's the rate at which money lasts in 90% of simulated outcomes over a 30-year retirement. A longer retirement may call for a more cautious rate.

How long should my retirement plan last?

Longer than many people assume. The Social Security Administration says about one in three 65-year-olds may live to at least 90. Planning to age 95 is a common way to account for that risk.

Are salary multiples enough to know if I'm on track?

Not on their own. Salary multiples measure your savings against your income, but whether your plan works depends on your savings measured against your spending. Two people with the same multiple can have very different odds, so use the benchmark as a starting point and then check your withdrawal rate and probability of success.