Safe Withdrawal Rate for a 25-Year Retirement: What the Data Says

3.9%. That's the starting withdrawal rate Morningstar says survives 90% of simulated futures over a 30-year retirement. If you're retiring in your late 60s, though, you may only need your money to last 25 years. So what's the safe withdrawal rate for a 25-year retirement? It's probably a bit higher than 3.9%. How much higher depends on markets, how flexible your spending is, and whether 25 years is really long enough for you.

This guide goes through what the research shows, where the numbers disagree, and how to check the answer against your own plan.

The short answer

• Morningstar's forward-looking baseline: 3.9% for a 30-year retirement at a 90% success rate, assuming a portfolio of 30% to 50% stocks. (Morningstar, The State of Retirement Income, Dec 2025)
• Shorter horizons support higher rates. A 25-year plan has five fewer years of withdrawals to fund, so the safe starting rate goes up.
• Historical data for 25 years: one analysis found that a 4.9% withdrawal rate worked in 90% of past 25-year periods. (Of Dollars and Data, What is the Safe Withdrawal Rate in Retirement?)

So the evidence points to somewhere between roughly 4% and 5% for a 25-year retirement with fixed, inflation-adjusted spending. Treat that as a starting range. It isn't a rule. Your own number depends on your mix of stocks and bonds, your other income, and how much risk you can live with.

One caution. Many websites print a single "25-year rate" with no source behind it. We couldn't find a Morningstar figure published specifically for 25 years, so we won't make one up. What follows is what the cited research actually says.

Two questions hiding in one search

People who type "25 year" into a retirement search usually mean one of two things.

1. "Is 25 times my expenses enough?" This is the 25x rule from the early-retirement community. It's just the 4% rule turned around: if you withdraw 4% a year, you need 25 times your annual spending saved. If you spend $60,000 a year, that works out to $1.5 million. Writers like Mr. Money Mustache made it popular. Others, like Passive Income MD, argue for saving more than 25x as a cushion.

2. "How much can I withdraw if my retirement lasts 25 years?" This question is about time horizon, which is what this article covers. If you stop working at 67 to 70, a 25-year plan takes you into your 90s.

These two questions are connected, but they aren't the same. Someone with 25 years of expenses saved may or may not have a plan that lasts 25 years. That depends on returns, inflation, and the order in which good and bad years arrive.

What the research says about a safe withdrawal rate for a 25-year retirement

Here are the main sources side by side. They measure slightly different things, so read the columns carefully.

Sources: Morningstar; Of Dollars and Data; Dallas News, Nov 2014; Boldin's summary of Morningstar. Secondary write-ups of the Trinity Study give slightly different figures for each stock/bond mix, so read those as approximate.

Look at the Trinity row. Going from 4% to 5% doesn't look like a big step. Over 25 years, though, that one percentage point cut historical success from near-certain to about four in five. Going to 6% made it close to a coin flip. Small changes in the rate have large effects.

Why the historical and forward-looking numbers disagree

Historical studies like Trinity and Bengen's original work ask what would have happened if you had retired in each past year. Their answers tend to be generous because U.S. markets did well over the last century.

Morningstar asks a different question: given today's stock prices and bond yields, what's likely to happen next? When stocks are expensive and expected returns are lower, the safe rate falls. When bond yields rise, it can recover. Morningstar has written that higher valuations lower the safe withdrawal rate.

This is why Morningstar's baseline changes from year to year. Over recent editions it has moved between 3.3% (2021) and 4.0% (2023). (Morningstar, What's a Safe Retirement Spending Rate for 2025?) The science didn't change. The market did.

What this means for you: a historical 4.9% and a forward-looking 3.9% don't contradict each other. They answer different questions. A careful 25-year plan sits somewhere between them and gets checked again as conditions change.

What "90% success" actually means

Almost every article quotes "90%," and almost none explain it.

A Monte Carlo simulation runs your plan through hundreds or thousands of possible market futures. Some have strong returns, some weak, some a crash in year two. Each one is a different random path. A 90% success rate means that in 90 of every 100 of those futures, you still had money at the end of the plan.

Two things that figure doesn't tell you:

• How bad the other 10% are. Running out in year 24 is very different from running out in year 15.
• How much is left in the good outcomes. In many successful futures, retirees die with far more than they started with, because they underspent.

So 90% doesn't mean "safe" and 10% doesn't mean "ruin." It's a measure of odds. That's why we describe a success rate as a probability, not a promise.

Is 25 years long enough?

This is the question most articles skip, and it matters a lot.

According to the Social Security Administration, about one out of every three 65-year-olds may live to at least 90. (Source: Social Security Administration, Retirement Information for Medicare Beneficiaries, 2026.)

Consider what that means for a 25-year plan:

• Retire at 65, plan for 25 years: the plan ends at 90. Roughly a third of people your age will live past that.
• Retire at 70, plan for 25 years: the plan ends at 95. That gives you much more room.

If you're retiring at 65, a 25-year horizon is a bet that you won't be in that one-in-three group. It may be a reasonable bet, but you should make it on purpose. Longer horizons lower the safe rate. Morningstar's early-retirement research shows the starting rate falling as the retirement period gets longer. Choosing a short horizon to get a higher withdrawal rate has a cost.

This is why the plan you build with Monte Climb runs to age 95 by default, and you can extend it.

Other things that move your number

Health care costs

Fidelity estimates that a 65-year-old retiring in 2025 will need $172,500 for Medicare premiums, deductibles and prescriptions over retirement. That figure doesn't include long-term care. (Source: Fidelity Investments, 2025 Retiree Health Care Cost Estimate, Jul 2025.) If your withdrawal rate is built on today's spending and leaves health care out, it's probably too high.

Sequence-of-returns risk

The order of returns matters as much as the average. A bad market in your first few years, while you're also making withdrawals, can do lasting damage that later gains don't fully repair. With a shorter retirement there's less time to recover. That's one reason the early years of a 25-year plan need the most care.

Social Security timing

If you start Social Security later, you get a larger guaranteed check for life. That means your portfolio has less to cover. Covering a few years of spending from savings and then claiming later can change your effective withdrawal rate a lot. Compare the claiming options in your own plan instead of using a rule of thumb.

Spending flexibility

Morningstar's research finds that people who can cut spending after bad years can start meaningfully higher than the fixed-spending baseline. (Morningstar, 2026) If some of your budget is optional, like travel or gifts, you may be able to take more early on. The trade-off is income that changes from year to year.

How to test your own 25-year plan

Published rates are averages built on someone else's assumptions. Your plan has its own age, balance, spending, and horizon.

According to EBRI's 2025 Retirement Confidence Survey, only 52% of workers have estimated how much monthly income they'll need in retirement. (Source: EBRI/Greenwald, Retirement Confidence Survey 2025, Fact Sheet 3.) Doing that estimate is the first step.

After that:

1. Pick your horizon on purpose. Base it on your age and longevity odds, not just on which horizon gives the bigger number.
2. Include health care as its own cost, not a rounding error.
3. Look at the success rate, not the average return. One straight-line projection hides the bad paths.
4. Test it to breaking point. Try a weak first few years, higher spending, and a longer life. See where the plan fails.

Monte Climb does this from three numbers: your age, your savings, and your monthly spending. It runs them through 1,000 simulated futures and shows what share stay funded. It runs in your browser, and nothing is saved until you say so. If you want to dig in, you can ask William, our AI planner, questions like "Am I on track?" or "Is my spending sustainable?" He shows his work.

It's planning software, not advice. It gives you a clear, evidence-based starting point.

Want to see your own odds? Show my answer with three numbers at Monte Climb's retirement calculator.

Frequently asked questions

What is a safe withdrawal rate for a 25-year retirement?

The research points to a starting range of roughly 4% to 5% for fixed, inflation-adjusted spending. Morningstar's forward-looking baseline is 3.9% for 30 years at 90% success, and shorter horizons support higher rates. One historical analysis from Of Dollars and Data found that 4.9% worked in 90% of past 25-year periods. Your own rate depends on your portfolio, your other income and how flexible your spending is.

Is the 25x rule the same as planning for a 25-year retirement?

No. The 25x rule says to save 25 times your annual spending, which is just the 4% rule turned around. A 25-year retirement is about how long your money has to last. Someone with 25x saved may or may not have a plan that lasts 25 years, depending on returns, inflation and the order in which good and bad years arrive.

Why is Morningstar's safe withdrawal rate lower than historical studies?

Historical studies like the Trinity Study look at how past U.S. markets performed, and those markets did well. Morningstar uses forward-looking assumptions based on current stock valuations and bond yields. When valuations are high, expected returns and safe withdrawal rates are lower.

Is a 25-year retirement plan long enough if I retire at 65?

It may not be. The Social Security Administration says about one in three 65-year-olds may live to at least 90, so a 25-year plan that starts at 65 ends right where a third of people your age are still alive. If you retire at 70, a 25-year plan reaches 95, which leaves more margin.

What does a 90% success rate mean?

In a Monte Carlo simulation, it means your money lasted the full plan in 90 out of every 100 simulated market futures. It doesn't tell you how early the other 10% ran out or how much was left in the good outcomes. It's a probability, not a guarantee.