How Long Will My Savings Last With Regular Withdrawals?

3.9%. Morningstar's latest research says that's the highest starting withdrawal rate that still left money in the account in 90% of simulated 30-year retirements. If you're asking how long will my savings last with regular withdrawals, start there. The quick answer is your balance divided by what you take out each year, stretched by whatever your investments earn after inflation. The more useful answer is a probability: out of many possible futures, how many leave you with money at the end?

This article covers both. First the simple math. Then why one neat number ("your money lasts 27 years") can mislead you, and what to look at instead.

The Quick Answer: Three Inputs

Every "how long will my money last" calculator uses the same three inputs:

1. Your balance. What you have saved today.
2. Your withdrawal. What you take out each month or year.
3. Your return. What the remaining money earns while you spend it.

If your savings earned nothing, the math would be plain division. Take $500,000 and withdraw $2,500 a month ($30,000 a year), and you get about 16.7 years.

Returns stretch that. Here's the same $500,000 and $30,000 a year under a few steady "real" returns. A real return is what's left after inflation, so it covers withdrawals that rise with prices.

Simple illustration. It assumes the same return every single year, end-of-year withdrawals, and no taxes or other income.

Look at the spread. Moving the assumed return by two points changes the answer by about seven or eight years. That's the first warning sign. The answer depends heavily on a number nobody knows ahead of time.

What Standard Calculators Factor In (and What They Don't)

The calculators that rank for this question, such as Bankrate's savings withdrawal calculator, handle the basics well. They make a few useful points:

• Inflation shortens the runway. Bankrate notes that raising your withdrawals each year to keep up with inflation makes the money run out sooner.
• How often you withdraw matters a little. Bankrate also points out that larger quarterly or annual withdrawals can leave more money earning interest than monthly ones.
• Taxes take a cut. Some tools, including CalcXML's systematic withdrawal calculator, ask for your tax bracket. What you withdraw isn't the same as what you get to spend.
• Other income helps. Tools like Practical Money Skills' "How Long Can I Be Retired?" let you add Social Security and pension income. That shrinks the gap your savings has to fill.

All of that is useful. But nearly all of these tools share one assumption: the same return every year. Markets don't work that way, and for retirees the order of good and bad years matters a lot.

The Hidden Risk: Bad Years Early On

Picture two retirees with identical savings, identical spending, and the same average return over 30 years. One gets the good years first. The other gets a market drop in year one.

They can end up in very different places.

This is called sequence-of-returns risk. While you're withdrawing, a loss early on forces you to sell more shares at low prices to cover the same spending. Those shares are gone. They aren't there for the recovery. Wade Pfau's white paper on sequence of returns risk explains that bad early returns can drain a portfolio even when the long-run average looks fine. The risk is sharpest for retirees taking fixed, inflation-adjusted withdrawals, which is how most people plan.

A steady-return calculator can't show this. Every year looks the same, so the order never matters.

Here's an illustration of the gap from a CFA training resource. A single projection at a steady 6.5% return made a plan look safe. When the same plan ran through a 10,000-trial Monte Carlo simulation, the chance of running out of money came out at 18% (Acadifi). That's a teaching example, not a research finding. The lesson still holds: a "safe" average can hide real odds of failure.

Monte Carlo, in Plain English

A Monte Carlo simulation is a way of asking "what if?" over and over again.

Instead of assuming one return every year, it builds a long list of possible futures. In some, markets start strong. In others, they crash in year two, recover, and stall again. Each future gets a different, realistic mix of good and bad years. Your plan runs through every one of them.

Then it counts. If your money lasts in 870 out of 1,000 futures, your success rate is 87%.

That changes the question. You stop asking "How many years will my money last?" and start asking "In how many futures does my money last as long as I do?" The second question is the one that matters, because you only get to live one future and you can't pick which one.

How to Read a 90% Success Rate

Morningstar's 3.9% figure is built on exactly this idea. According to The State of Retirement Income 2025 (Morningstar, December 2025), 3.9% is the highest starting withdrawal rate that leaves money in place in 90% of simulated outcomes over a 30-year retirement. It's judged by survival, not by an average return. That's up from 3.7% the year before, a rise credited to slightly higher expected returns across most asset classes (Boldin's summary of the Morningstar research).

Let's apply it to our example. A 3.9% starting withdrawal on $500,000 is $19,500 a year, or about $1,625 a month. Our earlier $30,000 a year works out to a 6% withdrawal rate. That's well above the research benchmark, and it's why the steady-return table above may look rosier than real life.

Some context on the benchmarks:

• Bengen's view: William Bengen, who created the original 4% rule in 1994, now puts the worst-case safe maximum for today's retirees at 4.7% (MoneyWeek). Different methods give different numbers. That's normal.
• Flexibility is worth a lot: In the same Morningstar research, retirees willing to let their spending move up and down could start closer to 6% (Boldin).

And the 10% that fail? They're worth a look too. Commentators such as Portfolio Pilot note that most models assume you never change your spending, but real retirees do. A failed simulation doesn't mean you run out of money one day without warning. It's usually a slow slide that shows up years ahead, while you can still adjust. A success rate measures risk. It doesn't predict what will happen to you.

Two Things That Quietly Stretch the Timeline

You may live longer than you plan for

About one in three 65-year-olds may live to at least 90, according to the Social Security Administration (Retirement Information for Medicare Beneficiaries, 2026). A plan that ends at 85 is quietly betting against a third of retirees. If you're 65, "how long will my savings last" really means "will they last 25 to 30 years, maybe more?"

Health care is a real line item

Fidelity's 2025 Retiree Health Care Cost Estimate (July 2025) puts lifetime health care costs for one 65-year-old at $172,500. That covers Medicare premiums, deductibles and prescriptions, and it leaves out long-term care entirely. If your monthly spending number doesn't include this, your withdrawals will probably be higher than you expect.

A Simple Way to Think About Your Own Number

You don't need a perfect model to get a better answer. Here's a sensible order:

1. Know your real monthly spending. EBRI's 2025 Retirement Confidence Survey found only 52% of workers have estimated the monthly income they'll need in retirement. The other half are guessing.
2. Subtract guaranteed income. Social Security and any pension reduce what your savings has to cover.
3. Work out your withdrawal rate. Divide your yearly withdrawal from savings by your balance. Compare it with the research benchmarks above, keeping in mind that they're guides, not guarantees.
4. Plan for a long life. Run your plan to 90 or 95, not 85.
5. Test the bad cases. What happens if markets fall in your first few years? What if you trimmed spending in down years?
6. Look at the odds, not one answer. A success rate across many futures tells you more than a single year count.

Where Monte Climb Fits

This is the question we built Monte Climb to answer. You enter three numbers: your age, what you've saved for retirement, and what you spend each month. We run them through 1,000 simulated futures and give you back a success rate. It runs in your browser, and nothing is saved until you say so. Plans run to age 95 by default, and you can push them further. The engine also charges Medicare premiums and income-based surcharges year by year instead of using a flat guess.

Want to go deeper? You can ask William, our AI planner, things like "Am I on track?", "Can I retire at 62?" or "What's a sustainable spend for me?" He shows his work. And it's planning software, not advice. The result is a probability, not a promise.

The Bottom Line

Dividing your balance by your withdrawals gives you a starting point. A steady-return calculator tightens it a bit. But the honest answer to how long your savings will last with regular withdrawals is a range of outcomes. It depends on your withdrawal rate, how long you live, what health care costs, and the order the market's good and bad years arrive in.

Three numbers will show you where you stand. Show my answer →

Frequently asked questions

How do I calculate how long my savings will last?

Start by dividing your balance by your yearly withdrawal. That tells you how long the money lasts if it earns nothing. Investment returns stretch the timeline, while inflation-adjusted withdrawals and taxes shorten it. Because returns vary from year to year, a simulation that tests many possible futures gives a more realistic picture than one fixed-return calculation.

How long will $500,000 last if I withdraw $2,500 a month?

If your savings earned nothing, $30,000 a year would last about 16.7 years. With an assumed steady real return of 2%, it's roughly 20.5 years. At 4%, it's roughly 28 years. Real markets don't deliver steady returns, though, and $30,000 is a 6% withdrawal rate. That's well above Morningstar's 3.9% research benchmark, so the actual odds depend on how the market behaves, especially in your early years.

What is a safe withdrawal rate in retirement?

In its State of Retirement Income 2025 report (December 2025), Morningstar puts the safe starting withdrawal rate at 3.9% for a 30-year retirement, measured by money lasting in 90% of simulated outcomes. William Bengen, creator of the 4% rule, now cites 4.7% as a worst-case safe maximum. Morningstar's research also found that flexible spenders could start closer to 6%.

What is sequence-of-returns risk?

It's the risk that poor market returns early in retirement drain your savings faster than the long-run average would suggest. Losses early on force you to sell more investments at low prices to fund your spending, so less money is left to recover. The risk is greatest for people taking fixed, inflation-adjusted withdrawals.

What does a 90% success rate mean in a Monte Carlo simulation?

It means your money lasted for the full plan in 90 out of every 100 simulated futures. It isn't a guarantee. It measures risk under realistic market ups and downs. Failed runs usually show up as a gradual decline, which gives real retirees time to adjust their spending.